Discussion: View Thread

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

Dear Dr. Barnett:

There is a classic paper by Mitchell and Mulherin (1996) Journal of Financial Economics 193-229, entitled "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity."  It is a US-centric database, but it examined and analyzes measures of economic, technological and regulatory shocks of the 1980s hostile takeover M&A wave that led to industry-wide asset reallocation between firm owners and non-owners via the least-cost method: M&A.  They cover a wide range of industries and use a number of electronic databases.  You may get something from this article.  Good luck!

Sincerely,

Jason W. Park

PhD Candidate, Strategic Management

Mervis Hall 247

Pittsburgh, PA  15260

Ph: (412) 648-1670

E-mail: jpark@katz.pitt.edu

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

Interesting project.  Wal-Mart's entry and success in the Grocery Industry.  Is that the kind of shock you are looking for?

claire

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

Launch of Apple McIntosh in 1984? It was the only computer with a graphical user interface vis-à-vis everything else in the market at the time (i.e., DOS-based machines).

Anyone remember c:> copy budgetreport.doc a:\

Wally Ferrier

_______________________________

Walter J. Ferrier, Ph.D.

Gatton Endowed Associate Professor

of Strategic Management

Gatton College of Business & Economics

University of Kentucky

Dear Dr. Barnett:

There is a classic paper by Mitchell and Mulherin (1996) Journal of Financial Economics 193-229, entitled "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity."  It is a US-centric database, but it examined and analyzes measures of economic, technological and regulatory shocks of the 1980s hostile takeover M&A wave that led to industry-wide asset reallocation between firm owners and non-owners via the least-cost method: M&A.  They cover a wide range of industries and use a number of electronic databases.  You may get something from this article.  Good luck!

Sincerely,

Jason W. Park

PhD Candidate, Strategic Management

Mervis Hall 247

Pittsburgh, PA  15260

Ph: (412) 648-1670

E-mail: jpark@katz.pitt.edu

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

No one remembers that (copy what to what, just kidding). Another similar shock was DEC's development of the mini-computer that could be linked together (VAX clusters). It took IBM and other mainframe companies apart

Launch of Apple McIntosh in 1984? It was the only computer with a graphical user interface vis-à-vis everything else in the market at the time (i.e., DOS-based machines).

Anyone remember c:> copy budgetreport.doc a:\

Wally Ferrier

_______________________________

Walter J. Ferrier, Ph.D.

Gatton Endowed Associate Professor

of Strategic Management

Gatton College of Business & Economics

University of Kentucky

Dear Dr. Barnett:

There is a classic paper by Mitchell and Mulherin (1996) Journal of Financial Economics 193-229, entitled "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity."  It is a US-centric database, but it examined and analyzes measures of economic, technological and regulatory shocks of the 1980s hostile takeover M&A wave that led to industry-wide asset reallocation between firm owners and non-owners via the least-cost method: M&A.  They cover a wide range of industries and use a number of electronic databases.  You may get something from this article.  Good luck!

Sincerely,

Jason W. Park

PhD Candidate, Strategic Management

Mervis Hall 247

Pittsburgh, PA  15260

Ph: (412) 648-1670

E-mail: jpark@katz.pitt.edu

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

It seems to me that recent history affords quite a rich list of industries reeling from double shocks, in which an evolving technological or social trend was suddenly exacerbated by the credit crunch, with its impacts on investment returns and customer spending power. The critical shock could be dated to the fall of Lehmann Bros. Candidate industries would include automobiles, newspapers, and long-haul airlines.

Launch of Apple McIntosh in 1984? It was the only computer with a graphical user interface vis-à-vis everything else in the market at the time (i.e., DOS-based machines).

Anyone remember c:> copy budgetreport.doc a:\

Wally Ferrier

_______________________________

Walter J. Ferrier, Ph.D.

Gatton Endowed Associate Professor

of Strategic Management

<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Gatton</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">College</st1:placetype></st1:place> of Business & Economics

<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:placename></st1:place>

Dear Dr. Barnett:

There is a classic paper by Mitchell and Mulherin (1996) Journal of Financial Economics 193-229, entitled "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity."  It is a US-centric database, but it examined and analyzes measures of economic, technological and regulatory shocks of the 1980s hostile takeover M&A wave that led to industry-wide asset reallocation between firm owners and non-owners via the least-cost method: M&A.  They cover a wide range of industries and use a number of electronic databases.  You may get something from this article.  Good luck!

Sincerely,

Jason W. Park

PhD Candidate, Strategic Management

Mervis Hall 247

<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">PA</st1:state>  <st1:postalcode w:st="on">15260</st1:postalcode></st1:place>

Ph: (412) 648-1670

E-mail: jpark@katz.pitt.edu

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said <st1:placename w:st="on">Business</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">School</st1:placetype>, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">U.</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">Oxford</st1:placename></st1:place>

Research Director, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Oxford</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">U.</st1:placetype></st1:place> Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">Oxford</st1:placename></st1:place>

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

Another, potentially more subtle shock, was the advent of digital and IP technology in telecommunications. This was felt probably more so in the European theater as this all but coincided with privatization/liberalization of the telecommunications markets as well. This left the former monopoly carriers to implement a new technological base while still running their old analogue networks. So the dilemma of running two networks simultaneously, creating patches for customer data from old to new systems at the same time competing with the newly established already digital competitors. One of the major aspects of this was the dramatically lower headcount required for maintaining digital/IP networks as opposed to analog networks. This was a true shock!

Bruce

Another, potentially more subtle shock, was the advent of digital and IP technology in telecommunications. This was felt probably more so in the European theater as this all but coincided with privatization/liberalization of the telecommunications markets as well. This left the former monopoly carriers to implement a new technological base while still running their old analogue networks. So the dilemma of running two networks simultaneously, creating patches for customer data from old to new systems at the same time competing with the newly established already digital competitors. One of the major aspects of this was the dramatically lower headcount required for maintaining digital/IP networks as opposed to analog networks. This was a true shock!

Bruce

How about the changes impacting locally-owned, main street bookstores? First it was online booksellers, then the emergence of e-readers, like Kindle, which is bankrupting many of these.

Cheers,

Norman

Another, potentially more subtle shock, was the advent of digital and IP technology in telecommunications. This was felt probably more so in the European theater as this all but coincided with privatization/liberalization of the telecommunications markets as well. This left the former monopoly carriers to implement a new technological base while still running their old analogue networks. So the dilemma of running two networks simultaneously, creating patches for customer data from old to new systems at the same time competing with the newly established already digital competitors. One of the major aspects of this was the dramatically lower headcount required for maintaining digital/IP networks as opposed to analog networks. This was a true shock!

Bruce

I am surprised that no one has brought up Clayton Christensen's study of disruptive technology.  His book is full of examples of where incumbents were blindsided by a fascinating class of technology shifts that enabled new companies developing in new market segments to migrate and wipe out incumbents when their performance improved enough to satisfy customer needs.

Another, potentially more subtle shock, was the advent of digital and IP technology in telecommunications. This was felt probably more so in the European theater as this all but coincided with privatization/liberalization of the telecommunications markets as well. This left the former monopoly carriers to implement a new technological base while still running their old analogue networks. So the dilemma of running two networks simultaneously, creating patches for customer data from old to new systems at the same time competing with the newly established already digital competitors. One of the major aspects of this was the dramatically lower headcount required for maintaining digital/IP networks as opposed to analog networks. This was a true shock!

Bruce

Hi folks.  Thanks so much for the responses.  I failed to suggest that you might want to respond to me directly rather than the whole list.  My e-mail is: michael.barnett@sbs.ox.ac.uk.  I'll leave it up to you, of course, to decide if you think your reply is best posted to all or just to me, but I do want to provide the option.

Best,

Mike

Another, potentially more subtle shock, was the advent of digital and IP technology in telecommunications. This was felt probably more so in the European theater as this all but coincided with privatization/liberalization of the telecommunications markets as well. This left the former monopoly carriers to implement a new technological base while still running their old analogue networks. So the dilemma of running two networks simultaneously, creating patches for customer data from old to new systems at the same time competing with the newly established already digital competitors. One of the major aspects of this was the dramatically lower headcount required for maintaining digital/IP networks as opposed to analog networks. This was a true shock!

Bruce

The responses to date have offered great examples of big upheavals, Mike, but re-reading your request I see you asked for examples that were sudden, and not long in the making. Very few cases indeed seem to qualify on this basis.

·         Virtually all technology 'shocks' are merely the crossing of a threshold of functionality and/or cost that reflects well understood trends, so basic concepts such as the experience curve and Clayton Christensen's frameworks should provide the basis for anticipating the change some time before it happens – often many years.

·         Even when there's a technology step-change or surprises, as in pharmaceuticals, it takes a while for a new product to be commercialised from the time its existence is public knowledge.

·         Regulatory changes, such as the deregulation of the airline industry in the US and Europe, may be sudden events, but are often signalled long in advance, and even when they happen responses that could threaten the status quo seem feasible to anticipate and open to scrutiny by incumbents. Two current examples concern the European legal services and asset management industries, both of which have been signalled by regulatory authorities for many years, and which have been worrying incumbents for some time.

·         We can dismiss economic recessions such as the dot-com bust and the banking crisis, since both were inevitable – only the scale and timing were uncertain. At all times, people with responsibility for strategy should be asking 'what's the worst that could happen here?'

Unless I'm missing something, then, it looks like the only contexts offering true shocks concern competitive actions, which would include some well-kept product secrets like the iPhone. The reason for these reflections is simply to note that strategic management should include the capability to anticipate virtually all 'shocks' – at least in principle, if not precisely in scale and timing.

Great question – thanks.

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

Thanks, Kim, Erwin, Jane, and some others.  You're correct.  Granted, my thinking has firmed up in response to the many suggestions (to paraphrase, how can I know what I think until I see what you say?), but I am hoping to find some instances of things that have happened suddenly and surprisingly – a true shock – rather than a gradual, even if ultimately industry/world altering, technology change.  It would be great (at least as far as my project) if a shock brought an end to a particular industry (all the better one clearly defined by a specific SIC/NAICS code!), rather than just depressing it for a bit.  Thus, post 9/11 effects on airlines wouldn't be a perfect example; though the shock was sudden and did do damage to the industry, even some long-lasting, it left the industry standing.  What I'm hoping to get at is the variation in firms' abilities to survive by going into new industries (or perhaps a substantially redefined version of the destroyed industry) once the focal industry is torn apart.

Best,

Mike

The responses to date have offered great examples of big upheavals, Mike, but re-reading your request I see you asked for examples that were sudden, and not long in the making. Very few cases indeed seem to qualify on this basis.

·         Virtually all technology 'shocks' are merely the crossing of a threshold of functionality and/or cost that reflects well understood trends, so basic concepts such as the experience curve and Clayton Christensen's frameworks should provide the basis for anticipating the change some time before it happens – often many years.

·         Even when there's a technology step-change or surprises, as in pharmaceuticals, it takes a while for a new product to be commercialised from the time its existence is public knowledge.

·         Regulatory changes, such as the deregulation of the airline industry in the US and Europe, may be sudden events, but are often signalled long in advance, and even when they happen responses that could threaten the status quo seem feasible to anticipate and open to scrutiny by incumbents. Two current examples concern the European legal services and asset management industries, both of which have been signalled by regulatory authorities for many years, and which have been worrying incumbents for some time.

·         We can dismiss economic recessions such as the dot-com bust and the banking crisis, since both were inevitable – only the scale and timing were uncertain. At all times, people with responsibility for strategy should be asking 'what's the worst that could happen here?'

Unless I'm missing something, then, it looks like the only contexts offering true shocks concern competitive actions, which would include some well-kept product secrets like the iPhone. The reason for these reflections is simply to note that strategic management should include the capability to anticipate virtually all 'shocks' – at least in principle, if not precisely in scale and timing.

Great question – thanks.

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796

Mike...the technology shock thing dates back to mainstream anthropology and of course, economics. True shocks are often not recognized for decades (and historically centuries) after they are put into place. You might want to pick a cutoff to see if what you are dealing with is a true shock or a tweak. A maybe good example is when RCA gave Sharp the LCD technology because they had no use for it. We didn't really see it for about 20 years as taking away cathode ray tube technologies. Find an anthropology book that talks about these things (wheels, fire) or rewatch 2001 Space Odessey (no kidding)...

Good luck..its interesting.

Thanks, Kim, Erwin, Jane, and some others.  You're correct.  Granted, my thinking has firmed up in response to the many suggestions (to paraphrase, how can I know what I think until I see what you say?), but I am hoping to find some instances of things that have happened suddenly and surprisingly – a true shock – rather than a gradual, even if ultimately industry/world altering, technology change.  It would be great (at least as far as my project) if a shock brought an end to a particular industry (all the better one clearly defined by a specific SIC/NAICS code!), rather than just depressing it for a bit.  Thus, post 9/11 effects on airlines wouldn't be a perfect example; though the shock was sudden and did do damage to the industry, even some long-lasting, it left the industry standing.  What I'm hoping to get at is the variation in firms' abilities to survive by going into new industries (or perhaps a substantially redefined version of the destroyed industry) once the focal industry is torn apart.

Best,

Mike

The responses to date have offered great examples of big upheavals, Mike, but re-reading your request I see you asked for examples that were sudden, and not long in the making. Very few cases indeed seem to qualify on this basis.

·         Virtually all technology 'shocks' are merely the crossing of a threshold of functionality and/or cost that reflects well understood trends, so basic concepts such as the experience curve and Clayton Christensen's frameworks should provide the basis for anticipating the change some time before it happens – often many years.

·         Even when there's a technology step-change or surprises, as in pharmaceuticals, it takes a while for a new product to be commercialised from the time its existence is public knowledge.

·         Regulatory changes, such as the deregulation of the airline industry in the US and Europe, may be sudden events, but are often signalled long in advance, and even when they happen responses that could threaten the status quo seem feasible to anticipate and open to scrutiny by incumbents. Two current examples concern the European legal services and asset management industries, both of which have been signalled by regulatory authorities for many years, and which have been worrying incumbents for some time.

·         We can dismiss economic recessions such as the dot-com bust and the banking crisis, since both were inevitable – only the scale and timing were uncertain. At all times, people with responsibility for strategy should be asking 'what's the worst that could happen here?'

Unless I'm missing something, then, it looks like the only contexts offering true shocks concern competitive actions, which would include some well-kept product secrets like the iPhone. The reason for these reflections is simply to note that strategic management should include the capability to anticipate virtually all 'shocks' – at least in principle, if not precisely in scale and timing.

Great question – thanks.

Dear Fellow Strategists:

I'm trying to develop a project, and I wonder if you might be able to lend a hand by offering some specific examples of competence-destroying shocks that have hit various industries, leading to the death, crippling, or at least massive transformation of the industry.  I have some ideas about variables that might affect firm survivability in the face of such shocks, and I want to test the ideas across a broad swath of industries.   

A few caveats on what is workable: 1) The shock ideally would be fairly sudden, not one that was years in the making perhaps due to gradual technological change or changing consumer tastes.  However, I might be able to account for the timing in the model, so this is not a deal breaker.  2) The industry would hopefully be one that has a fair number of public companies (else, the ever-troublesome problem of no access to data).  3) For similar reasons, the shock would be in recent history (as in, since Compustat).  4) The shock should be something that cuts to the core of the industry (however defined), rather than one that applies heterogeneously to firms across the industry (granted, I can narrow the industry definition, so long as it applies to a broad swath of firms).

Any help much appreciated!

Best,

Mike

************************

Michael L. Barnett

Professor of Strategy, Said Business School, U. of Oxford

Research Director, Oxford U. Centre for Corporate Reputation

Fellow, St. Anne's College, University of Oxford

http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/people/Pages/MikeBarnett.aspx

View my research on my SSRN Author page:

http://ssrn.com/author=414796