It's not fair to blame strategy methods for failure to anticipate these problems. The future is unknowable, no matter how many "gee whiz" methods we throw at analyzing it. What looks obvious in retrospect is fuzzy at best in the present. There are some interesting scenario planning methods, and there's the old standard of systematic analysis of the general environment. But even if we could somewhat accurately forecast the future, folks don't want to believe it. They have biases that cause them to discount or ignore suggestions that the gravy train may be coming to an end. I've found that my students come in with a strong bias toward believing that whatever firms are doing is right, simply because the firms are doing it. They believe the management reports that downplay the risks that they are legally required to report and overplay the likelihood of future greatness. They don't recognize that these same firms may go bankrupt the next day, and that most do over time.
I don't think the answer lies in building greater methods for forecasting – I don't know that those will ever exist – but instead lies in encouraging critical thinking in those who interpret whatever insights current methods can generate. Students must understand that success is impermanent, and that firms often do things that are wrong. If they start with this critical perspective, they'll be more likely to pick up on problems rather than ignore them. In the simplest terms, I tell them to envision that there's a "BS bird" on their shoulders, and every time they make a statement, the bird screeches, "That's BS!" They must then convincingly prove otherwise. This helps (somewhat) to move them away from "analyzing" a firm by writing a book report that effectively spews back a glossy PR brochure that parrots the firm's greatness, and toward critically analyze where the firm is at and where it needs to. Still, there's no guarantee that the strategic plans they come up with will work out, but the likelihood increases.
If it's of any help, I've attached a copy of the guidelines I provide my students for their team reports. These are undegrads in the capstone strategy course. I find that they have the hardest time grasping corporate strategy, as distinct from business-level, and they typically want to advertise or market their way out of most problems.
Best,
Mike
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Michael L. Barnett, PhD
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">University of South</st1:city> <st1:state w:st="on">Florida</st1:state></st1:place>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">College</st1:placetype> of <st1:placename w:st="on">Business Administration</st1:placename></st1:place>
Department of Management & Organization
<st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">4202 E. Fowler Avenue</st1:address></st1:street>, BSN 3213
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Tampa</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">FL</st1:state> <st1:postalcode w:st="on">33620-5500</st1:postalcode></st1:place>
Phone: 813-974-1727
Fax: 813-974-1734
E-mail: mbarnett@coba.usf.edu
Webpage: http://www.coba.usf.edu/barnett
View my research on my SSRN Author page:
<http://ssrn.com/author=414796>
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From: <st1:personname w:st="on">Business Policy and Strategy List</st1:personname> [mailto:BPS-NET@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU] On Behalf Of Kim Warren
Sent: Friday, May 01, 2009 5:01 AM
To: BPS-NET@AOMLISTS.PACE.EDU
Subject: Further concern arising from the crisis and implications for strategic management
Sorry for cross-posting.
It seems that concern arising from the crisis about the contribution of business schools, the MBA and strategy methods has not gone away. Amongst a continuing stream of similar items, Harvard Business Publishing reports a survey by NetImpact - MBA Students Aren't Learning to Avoid Future Crises in which 90% of grad-students blame short-term business focus [which sounds like the exact antithesis of 'strategic' management] for the crisis, and fewer than a quarter think their MBA courses would help them avoid future crises. We continue to get questions from management, their consultant advisors, the media, and the business school community, about why it was possible for such a major crisis to develop, given the sophistication of our strategy concepts and processes – but unless I have missed something, few suggested answers. One common claim is that it was all down to a lack of ethics, but that hardly explains the widespread failure – surely not all our corporations have been led by crooks?
I would very much value further suggestions – specifically about the principles and tools of strategic management, rather than other topics - from anyone who has been giving thought to the issue.
· What is anyone doing in their class-room teaching, for MBAs or executives, to explain how good strategic management would have helped companies anticipate, prepare for, and cope with the crisis?
· What are you telling folk they should do differently in future, and on what underlying theories or principles are those suggestions based? [links to books, articles or web-sites would be especially helpful]
· And are these new ideas being embedded in changes to your core strategy syllabus? How is that being received?
All I can offer so far is in a presentation given recently at business schools in <st1:place w:st="on">S America</st1:place>, looking at the kinds of error companies made, both leading up to the downturn and after, and asking how existing strategy tools might have helped avoid those errors. [ These findings encouraged the re-write for the opening of my textbook, at smd-new-start, posted on before. ]
If the links don't work, the URLs are ...
NetImpact - http://hbsp.ed10.net/r/CIZ4/Y6430/EW3FLK/V0YZT/Z2T90/AZ/h
Presentation - www.strategydynamics.com/strategy-lessons
Book chapter - www.strategydynamics.com/smd-new-start
Kim Warren: <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">London</st1:placename> <st1:placename w:st="on">Business</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">School</st1:placetype></st1:place>